Jom semak!
In the famous buku Jingga which outlines the PKR immediate plans as soon as they assume office there are numerous statistic used.
It was a scary read initially enough to make one mad with the current government but lucky for me, I've been taught to not just except ideas for writers but actually take it as point to start my investigation.
And so, I investigate and if you are like me, a keen reader and seek to look for the truth, then read on.
It was a scary read initially enough to make one mad with the current government but lucky for me, I've been taught to not just except ideas for writers but actually take it as point to start my investigation.
And so, I investigate and if you are like me, a keen reader and seek to look for the truth, then read on.
My dearest En. Rafizi,
My opinion is that your statistics do not stand. In fact I'm actually going to say they are pretty much fake and here I would like to prove it to you.
My opinion is that your statistics do not stand. In fact I'm actually going to say they are pretty much fake and here I would like to prove it to you.
Let us only dissect two, even if it will be a pleasure to do this all day, but two is enough to question PKR credibility and their ability to run Malaysia.
1) En. Rafizi, will you share how your team researched the claim 40% of household earning less than RM1,500 and of which age group?
My dearest readers, the key word here is household.
(Each household in Malaysia may be either a family where the there is a sole breadwinner, or both husband and wife are working, or families where working children lives in the same house as their parents, all are working. It could also be a house full of students, a house full of workers... and so one. )
(Each household in Malaysia may be either a family where the there is a sole breadwinner, or both husband and wife are working, or families where working children lives in the same house as their parents, all are working. It could also be a house full of students, a house full of workers... and so one. )
En. Rafizi claims that almost half of the country, each household take home pay is less than RM1,500.
Basically, on average, every 10 Malaysians that you know, 4 of them lives in a house that only brings in RM1,500 per month. The reason I investigated this is because I asked myself, hands on heart, do I really know 4 people in every 10 people who lives in poverty?
My families and friends are from diversified background and wealth. Yes, among us, there is some members who are not doing as well another financially, but every 4 people in 10?
My families and friends are from diversified background and wealth. Yes, among us, there is some members who are not doing as well another financially, but every 4 people in 10?
Jom kita semak!
Forget big cities because those folks have more opportunities to earning income than urban areas.
Let's look at poorer states within Malaysia. Let us see if statistics from these poorer states are pulling the overall average down. For this purpose, I used publish statistic.
Let's look at poorer states within Malaysia. Let us see if statistics from these poorer states are pulling the overall average down. For this purpose, I used publish statistic.
(For the skeptic, we are not looking at absolute numbers; let us use this statistic as relative.)
There are 3 states with the lowest income distribution which is Kedah, Kelantan and Perlis.
42% of the population actually lives in Selangor, Johor and Sabah with respective average (12.02m people -median) household income of Selangor RM 4k, Johor RM3K, Sabah RM2K. It is safe to assume that we can exclude them.
So, that leaves us with the poorer countries that may pull our statistic down, right?
Population Kedah 1.95m, Perlis 0.23m, Kelatan 1.54m. That is a total of 3.72m people. Let us include 100% of this population.
PKR used dated statistic in their buku Jingga, so I shall do the same for comparative purposes (year 2010).
In relative terms,
- Total populations size in Malaysia about 28.33m.
- A total of 3.67m people live in poorer states, making it only about 13% of the total population.
That changes the immediately changes the statistic, now we can see that actually out of every 10 Malaysian, there is possibly 1.3 people that earns less than RM1,500.
En. Rafizi,
Why does PKR see the need to manipulate numbers when your party promotes transparency and a government for change?
In my opinion, PKR manipulated the statistic now to buy your votes, and I question what more are they capable to do if they become the government? Lying to the people just to get into office is not cool.
In my opinion, PKR manipulated the statistic now to buy your votes, and I question what more are they capable to do if they become the government? Lying to the people just to get into office is not cool.
A politician job is to convince us they can do a better job than the other guy, that’s all. No need to lie, guilt-tripping and creating fake propaganda. Really with all the accusation floating about UMNO, is PKR really any different?
Moving on the second most shocking statistic (in my opinion are just pure lies) of all time.....
2) PKR claims that there are RM466b personal borrowing which means this is a heavy burden to Rakyat.
Yes, you read it right, it is said to be RM 466 billion? Billion ? That is RM 466,000 million for a population size of about 28.33 million?
Let us break it down, this time we shall use the statistic as provided by En. Rafizi and his team, sourced from buku jingga (assuming it is right)
According to PKR 40% of the population earns less than RM1,500 per household. Naturally no banks in their right mind would provide landing to the unemployed or the poor, right?
So, based on En. Rafizi claims 60% of work force borrowing amounts to RM466billion?
Let's make us make that number more realistic.
PKR documents and En. Rafizi is often vague, so who knows what is included in that number exactly? So we are going to have to make some assumptions, and let us make it in favour of PKR. They need all the help they can get to support this "statistic".
For mathematical purposes, let us work in millions.
PKR claims:
· 4m workforce equals 34% if you gross that up, it makes total workforce is 11.7m. I tested to be about right as the govt stats says about 12.6m people are working. - lebih kurang sama.
· if work force is 11,7 m people, 34% of them are poor, leaving those earning RM1,500 per month to 7.7m people
PKR lacks of information behind the statistic on the following:
· If mortgage is included, and average repayment period
· if students loan included
· by what income distribution
Now, let us dissects this slowly, step by step:
Assumptions
Assumptions
To make this realistic, let us make some assumptions. I would like to stress that these assumptions should work in PKR’s favor not mine.
· RM466b includes student loan about RM25b.
· It includes mortgage and repayment average around 25 years
· It includes car loans and repayment average around 5 years
· It is includes credit card debts
· After student loans, the lending is made to individuals who earn at least RM1,500 becauase no banks will lend to people who don't have money to pay them back.
So......
So......
In a household where each husband and wife earns RM1,500 per person, the household income is RM3,000 per month.
Prior to lending, all banks must do debt to income ratio (DTI). This is regulated and it's common practice all around the world. It basically tests your repayment ability to make sure you are not too stretch in your borrowings.
Healthy DTI is about 36%, so, if your family earns RM3,000 per month, the maximum the bank will lend you is subject to repayment of RM1,080 per month.
So,
· A car and repay over 5 yrs, you can only borrow maximumRM64,800k.
· A house over 25 years, you can only borrow RM324k.
· If you want to buy a house and car, your borrowing ability is limited to maximum repayment of RM1,080 per month.
(trust me, I'm being generous here, my numbers doesn't include interest and based on gross)
Now let us put everything into perspective.
En. Rafizi and his friends claims that RM466b are personal debt.
Work force are 12m of which 7.7m can afford to borrow.
Total population is 28.33m
Let's look at various scenario ranging from the banks lending responsibly to banks lending irresponsibly.
RM 466b less student debt RM25b leaves us RM441b that is borrowed by 12m people.
If bank do responsible lending : RM441,000m/7.7m people = average borrowing is RM57m per head
If bank are irresponsible - Lending is RM441,000m/12m =RM 36.7m borrowing per head
If bank is so stupid and lend money even to babies = RM466,000m /28.33m =RM16m borrowings per head.
Korang ade ker Rm 16 million? Siapa tak marah kalau PKR play around with numbers like this?? Do they underestimate us?
My PKR friends, from these, there are only two possibilities:
1) You lied to us. Your statistic is wrong and you deliberately manipulate the situation… or…
2) You want to increase disposable income for the rich people by scaring the average people about debts and confusing them about what is the real issue, you want them to believe that you actually care about the Rakyat.
so.... Which one??
Let us assume for a second that your statistic is correct, then the borrowings are from the rich, who earns a lot, some ridiculously high. However, on the other hand, PKR claims that income distribution average is low, again in relative terms; then statistically shouldn't this pull the average income distribution up?
So, could this mean that the “rich folks” are evading tax through off-shore systems.
What I would expect you to do is to tax those rich folks more. To make a commitment that you will crack offshore accounts and would work with Singapore to stop harboring these people.
Of course, these are not popular, you will lose votes with the rich and DAP would lose their popularity support in Singapore.
But instead PKR looks to punish companies and large corporations that employ the average people by reducing their subsidies and their incentives.
En. Rafizi, truthfully, tell me, who are you and your party protecting?
I said before, and I'm going to say it again......It is not easy being a government, but it is sure easy being a smooth talker opposition. Honestly a guy who claims openly he is an anti-establishment and yet he is trying to convince people that he wants Putrajaya? In what world do you live in?
Why doesn’t the current government do the same, tax the rich folks more?? It is for the absolutely the same reason why PKR chooses not to do it too. The only difference is Malaysia government are pushing Singapore for their corporation diplomatically and they are taking a hit to their reputaion as the people in Malaysia label them as corrupt. Not only that, Dato' Najib actually is trying to fix this issues under transformasi. Yes, it's unpopular but it needed to be address, while PKR hides behind the sweets and choclates they are offering the sweet tooth Malaysian?
Futher to that, the Malaysian government are taxing the rich people more through their expansive cars and from fuel that their big car consume, their tax for imported luxury goods and big fancy houses. Albeit indirectly, they are still taxing these folks. PKR are looking to give these people a break, taking less tax from them, reducing our overall nation’s revenue and coming up with other poorly planned income distribution, like a fail cashflow for sale of AP.
Do you not get it? It is simple, tax is a the best way for income distribution between the poor and rich. If you wipe out tax, then you are not helping the poor, you are helping the rich.
Why doesn’t the current government do the same, tax the rich folks more?? It is for the absolutely the same reason why PKR chooses not to do it too. The only difference is Malaysia government are pushing Singapore for their corporation diplomatically and they are taking a hit to their reputaion as the people in Malaysia label them as corrupt. Not only that, Dato' Najib actually is trying to fix this issues under transformasi. Yes, it's unpopular but it needed to be address, while PKR hides behind the sweets and choclates they are offering the sweet tooth Malaysian?
Futher to that, the Malaysian government are taxing the rich people more through their expansive cars and from fuel that their big car consume, their tax for imported luxury goods and big fancy houses. Albeit indirectly, they are still taxing these folks. PKR are looking to give these people a break, taking less tax from them, reducing our overall nation’s revenue and coming up with other poorly planned income distribution, like a fail cashflow for sale of AP.
Do you not get it? It is simple, tax is a the best way for income distribution between the poor and rich. If you wipe out tax, then you are not helping the poor, you are helping the rich.
There is this notion of "prudent spending" that is being thrown like m&m by PKR, a terminology that some of my friends repeat but really I wonder how much they understand Prudent Spending.
If you understand prudent spending, it means that you make your ringgit stretch more. You try to get more value for the money you spend. You have a budget, you need to get alot done, you need to squeeze in getting as much value as you can. If we are making a changes to how we spend, then prudent spending would call reallocation of budget under transformasi but under Reformasi it will mean allocation of budget and also budget cuts, given less income.
To this date, PKR have failed to explain what is the cuts they plan to make other than the ones that will crippled our corporations spending abilities through subsidies cuts which will only mean it will be translated to us, crippling hiring capabilities, salary increment, future project fundings and so on.
Next time PKR convince you of prudent spending, ask them how?
If you understand prudent spending, it means that you make your ringgit stretch more. You try to get more value for the money you spend. You have a budget, you need to get alot done, you need to squeeze in getting as much value as you can. If we are making a changes to how we spend, then prudent spending would call reallocation of budget under transformasi but under Reformasi it will mean allocation of budget and also budget cuts, given less income.
To this date, PKR have failed to explain what is the cuts they plan to make other than the ones that will crippled our corporations spending abilities through subsidies cuts which will only mean it will be translated to us, crippling hiring capabilities, salary increment, future project fundings and so on.
Next time PKR convince you of prudent spending, ask them how?
My dear readers,
This would be my last article on dissecting PKR policies, given that the election is looming and I want to spend more time analysing the BN manifesto and comparing it to the recent budget.
We are all excited to vote, and we all are hoping for a better Malaysia.
We are all excited to vote, and we all are hoping for a better Malaysia.
Whatever happen, I would like to share with you my story and I would like to inspire you for us to change as individuals irrespective of our political ideologies, especially for my young readers who is just about to embark life.
I lived through recession time twice, once in Malaysia where in year 1997, I was a very poor student. I hardly had RM2 in pocket for daily budget and I couldn't buy books so I borrowed from the library and friends, then again recently due to European economic recession in Ireland.
For me, blaming the government is an easy way out, and that is a personality of a coward.
The reality is we are responsible for the decisions we make. Whatever our personal debt maybe, it is our responsibly as an individual, we make those choices. This is where you can see prudent spending is not easy, huh.
I'm still paying through my nose for my sins shopping on credits. Every time I pay, I feel the pain, and I use that as a painful reminder that I'm the one responsible for that, regardless if the bank we giving out credits like tic-tac’s.
Is that the government's fault?
To a degree is yes, for example if you take house prices for example, if you live in Penang, you cannot buy a decent house for less than RM800k for family of 6 people. What do you expect the borrowing in Malaysia is going to be?
Similarly in Ireland, the house price crashed almost double, leaving many people in negative equity.
However, if we push the responsibility upon ourselves, we will ask ourselves, why are we buying the houses at that price? If we stop buying, the houses turned into ghost towns and naturally then developers would be forced to reduce the price.
Now, to me, that is the true purchasing power, a true consumer. I do not believe in one that screams for more disposable income so that the income can be poured into bubble pricing (and designer items).
The value of a property, land, a car whatever the assets maybe, lies in your decisions to value it. Hence, we must be a smarter and more responsible purchaser. We can force the market to shift, I've seen it done in Ireland.
Sometimes, we need the government's help, which is why there are some incentives under Transformasi for affordable housepricing, reduction in car duty and so on.
Sometimes, we need the government's help, which is why there are some incentives under Transformasi for affordable housepricing, reduction in car duty and so on.
A strong and mature government would understand that in a country where there are high personal borrowings, they must impose stronger regulations to the bank, calling for more regulated industry and stringent the lending laws and credit cards.
When borrowings are more difficult naturally developers will reduce their pricing to be more affordable so that they can achieve sale. This also works for car prices, and other purchases.
This is what we must push the government to do. A solutions for to have some extra ringgit in our pocket is temporary and please understand that it comes at a very expansive price which is impairing our Malaysia’s future development.
Luxury can be defined in many ways, in Ireland and Sweden; luxury can mean the fresh cream on the cake vs. basic sponge. In Malaysia, in KL especially you'll see ladies flashing their luxury handbag while they lunch at foreign food chain which they are willing to pay 4 times the average price for a cup of coffee. This is the fact of the new middle class family. It's okay sometimes, but to cry over this desire is Capitalism.
And if you think Capitalism is a good thing, I'd like to quote my previous article on "the story of mankind"
"Our era is full of hypocrisy. We wears our one religion but truly we have another layer which is the capitalism religion. We enslaved ourself to our jobs to afford unaffordable mortgages, the fancy cars and designer handbags. We confuse all matters of war, money and religion so that we can pick and choose excuses as feel good factor.
A lifestyle that is not sustainable unless we are willing to step on somebody else head and to stab them on the back to achieve what we want. Which is why today, we have excess in some parts of the world while others suffers poverty and starvation.
When capitalism becomes the new way of life, it becomes the new religion."
And if you think Capitalism is a good thing, I'd like to quote my previous article on "the story of mankind"
"Our era is full of hypocrisy. We wears our one religion but truly we have another layer which is the capitalism religion. We enslaved ourself to our jobs to afford unaffordable mortgages, the fancy cars and designer handbags. We confuse all matters of war, money and religion so that we can pick and choose excuses as feel good factor.
A lifestyle that is not sustainable unless we are willing to step on somebody else head and to stab them on the back to achieve what we want. Which is why today, we have excess in some parts of the world while others suffers poverty and starvation.
When capitalism becomes the new way of life, it becomes the new religion."
Finally, for my dear En. Rafizi, if you are truly serious about wanting to play a role in the government, then you need to work harder. We Rakyat deserves better.
Thank you.
~fida.i~
Demi Agamaku, Bangsaku dan NegarakuReferrences.
"W.P. Putrajaya recorded the highest average household income amounting to RM6,747 per month followed by Selangor (RM5,962) and W.P. Kuala Lumpur (RM5,488). Three states recorded the average monthly household income of above RM4,000 per month that is Melaka (RM4,184), Pulau Pinang (RM4,407) and W.P. Labuan (RM4,407). The states which recorded the lowest average monthly household income were Kelantan (RM2,536), Perlis (RM2,617) and Kedah (RM2,667).
The highest median of monthly household income was W.P. Putrajaya (RM5,450) followed by W.P. Kuala Lumpur (RM4,409) and Selangor (RM4,306). Three states that recorded the median of monthly household income of below RM2,000 were Kedah (RM1,966), Perlis (RM1,832) and Kelantan (RM1,713) "
Population distribution
Population distribution by state indicated that Selangor was the most populous state (5.46 million), followed by Johor (3.35 million) and Sabah (3.21 million). The population share of these states to the total population of Malaysia was 42.4 per cent. The least populated states were W. P. Putrajaya (72,413) and W .P. Labuan (86,908).
http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&id=1215
Bravo Fida,
SvaraRaderaThis is undeniably the best entry ever!!
Thank U